This article was first published on moneycontrol.com | December, 03, 2023
The 3-1 verdict between BJP and Congress in the state assembly elections set the stage for the road to the national polls in 2024. State and national contests often differ, of course, but several key indicators of the national mood stand out from the results in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Telangana. The results also have significant implications for the Congress and opposition I.N.D.I.A alliance. Here are seven takeaways:
1) Brand Modi still impregnable, Congress Unable to Make Dents in Hindi Heartland: First and foremost, the results underline how Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s brand appeal retains its electoral potency, even in local contests. Remember that in Chhattisgarh, the BJP had no major pan-state leader of note. In both Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the party specifically chose not to project a CM face, despite the presence of its traditional satraps, Vasundhara Raje and Shivraj Singh Chauhan.
The Prime Minister — or ‘Modi ki guarantee’ as the party’s poll slogan put it — was at the centre of the party’s campaign in all three states (even as both Shivraj and Raje put their shoulders to the wheel). The Modi factor mattered (in terms of the campaign pitch, the messaging and the number of rallies undertaken by the PM).
2) BJP’s Core Voters and Party Machinery Remain Strong in Hindi Heartland: After two decades of incumbency in Madhya Pradesh, few gave BJP a chance even three months ago. This was equally true of Chhattisgarh where exit polls predicted a clear Congress edge. Yet, we have seen a BJP wave in MP and a saffron resurgence in Chhattisgarh…….
3) Voters Reject Mandal 2.0 and Caste Survey Idea: The runup to these assembly polls was animated by Rahul Gandhi’s call for a nationwide caste census. The opposition was betting big on this gambit as a way of cutting through the BJP’s Hindutva plank and fracturing the new Other Backwards Classes (OBC) base that has powered the party’s post-2014 victories in the Modi era.
This had limited impact on the ground. Almost one-third of MP’s 230 assembly seats, for example, are OBC-dominated. BJP was leading in 49 (20 more than last time) of 67 OBC-dominant seats in the state……
4) Tribal Surge for BJP: If there is a common social thread across the Hindi heartland states that went to polls, it is the clear tribal vote in favour of BJP. In Chhattisgarh, it led in 18 of 29 reserved tribal seats, in Madhya Pradesh 27 of 47 and in Rajasthan 11 of 25. In all three states, this tribal surge reverses the traditional voting pattern in these reserved seats – which last time was overwhelmingly in favour of Congress……
5) Muslim Consolidation Behind Congress, Issues for I.N.D.I.A Alliance: The Telangana verdict indicates a Muslim-consolidation behind Congress, away from regional parties. The shift of minority votes from BRS to Congress in Telangana repeats a pattern we saw in Karnataka earlier this year, where significant numbers of Muslim voters shifted from JDS to Congress as well. The BRS won only 18 of 39 Muslim-significant seats (down 12 from last time). Significantly, Asaduddin Owaisi’s party, AIMIM, only managed to win 3 seats (down 4 from 2018)…….
6) Congress’s Telangana Win Shows North-South Divide in Indian Politics: The revival of the Congress in Telangana resurrects a core party bastion that had simply crumbled away in the aftermath of the new state’s formation in 2014. After the party’s Karnataka sweep earlier this year, the Telangana surge hands the Congress a second southern state, with a strong economic and financial base…….
7) Women Voters Have Changed the Game: These elections have once again underscored the crucial role of the Mahila factor. In MP, for instance 18.3 lakh women voters cast their ballots, 2% more than last time. Women ‘labharthees’ clearly played a pivotal role in the BJP’s resurgence, driven by new welfare measures like the ‘Ladli Behna’ [Beloved Sister] scheme that put money directly in their pockets……..
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This article was first published on moneycontrol.com | December, 03, 2023
