This article was first published on moneycontrol.com | November, 30, 2023
Exit polls have been a critical weathervane in the political theatre that has characterised key poll contests ever since the American pollster Warren Mitofsky conducted the first one in 1967 for the Kentucky governor’s contest. Individual polls may get it wrong sometimes, for sure, but a wider poll of exit polls – averaging out the findings of all key pollsters — more often than not, does provide a sense of the direction in which the people’s mood is moving.
So, what does the poll of exit polls – showing a possible 2-2 draw between Congress and BJP — in key Hindi heartland states and Telangana mean for national politics? If these numbers hold on results day, here are five key takeaways:
• Brand Modi still delivering, even in state contests: A BJP victory in Rajasthan (which would be part of the state’s historical pattern of replacing incumbents) and a tight margin call in Madhya Pradesh (going against the grain of 20 years of anti-incumbency) would first and foremost indicate that Prime Minister Modi’s brand appeal retains its electoral potency, even in local contests…..
• BJP’s Core Voter Base and Last Mile Party Machinery Remain Strong in Hindi Heartland: After two decades of incumbency in Madhya Pradesh, few gave BJP a chance even three months ago. Despite that, a BJP resurgence in the state showcases the inherent strengths of the party’s cadre……
• Jury Still Out on Mandal 2.0 and Caste Survey: The runup to these assembly polls was animated by Rahul Gandhi’s call for a nationwide caste census. The opposition was betting big on this gambit as a way of cutting through the BJP’s Hindutva plank and to fracture the new Other Backwards Classes (OBC) base that has powered the party’s post-2014 victories in the Modi era…….
• Congress’s Telangana Surge Indicates Emergence of a Different South India Model: The revival of the Congress in Telangana resurrects a core party bastion that had simply crumbled away in the aftermath of the new state’s formation in 2014. After the party’s Karnataka sweep earlier this year, the Telangana surge hands the Congress a second southern state, with a strong economic and financial base…..
• Women Voters Have Changed the Game: These elections have once again underscored the crucial role of the Mahila-factor. In MP, for instance 18.3 lakh women voters cast their ballots, 2% more than last time. Women ‘labharthees’ clearly played a pivotal role in the BJP’s resurgence, driven by new welfare measures like the ‘Ladli Behna’ [Beloved Sister] scheme that put money directly in their pockets.
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This article was first published on moneycontrol.com | November, 30, 2023
