This opinion was first published on news18.com | APRIL 20, 2023.
The Karnataka assembly elections have turned into a high-stakes prestige contest for the BJP because of four reasons.
First, it is the only state in southern India where the party is in power.
Second, the party moves to a very different rhythm in Karnataka than how things work for it in north India. Political nuances in Karnataka are different from say in Uttar Pradesh or Gujarat. With defections mounting from the BJP’s old guard in Karnataka — including former chief minister Jagadish Shettar and former deputy chief minister Laxman Savadi — the poll battle also reflects the extent to which Karnataka’s politics marches to its tune, with local factors dominating.
Third, the stakes for the Congress are even higher in this state battle. The grand old party faces its own internal turf battles as well between supporters of DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah.
And finally, the outcome will be watched closely for what it could portend for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections….
The BJP’s Spatial Expansion in Karnataka, (Lok Sabha Elections: 1991-2019)
1991: The BJP’s First Breakthrough
1996: A Slight Expansion
1998: First Time the BJP Wins a Majority of LS Seats
(alliance with Ramakrishna Hegde’s Lok Shakti)
(alliance with Ramakrishna Hegde’s Lok Shakti)
2004: BJP Begins New Phase of LS Dominance
2009: The BJP Consolidates Dominance, a pattern that repeats in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha Polls
Table 1: The BJP in Karnataka: Vidhana Soudha Elections (1983-2019). Total seats, 224
- 1983: BJP’s first inroads- Janata: 95; Congress (I): 82; BJP: 18; Independents: 22
- 1985: BJP declines – Janata: 139; Congress: 65; BJP: 2; Independents: 13
- 1989: BJP support remains negligible- Congress: 178; JD: 24; BJP: 4; Independents: 12
- 1994: First BJP expansion, after Idgah Maidan agitation and Veerendra Patil sacking- JD: 115; BJP: 40; Congress: 34; KCP: 10; Independents: 18
- 1999: BJP consolidates- Congress: 132; BJP: 44; JD(U): 18, JD(S): 10; Independents: 19
- 2004: BJP becomes the single-largest party in a hung house, aligns with the JD(S). Both parties agree to have a CM each for twenty months. Yediyurappa becomes first BJP deputy CM—under JD(S) CM HD Kumaraswamy—and the first BJP CM in south India in 2007, but his government lasted only five days as JD(S) withdrew support. Seats tally- BJP: 79; Congress: 65; JD(S): 58
- 2008: BJP wins much bigger tally, forms its first full-term government in south India (though it did not win a simple majority, falling short of the halfway mark). Seats tally- BJP: 110; Congress: 80; JD(S): 28
- 2013: BJP declines substantially after Yediyurappa leaves the party and forms a new regional party that splits the BJP vote. Seats tally: Congress: 122; BJP: 40; JD(S): 40; KJP: 6; BSR Congress: 4
- 2018: BJP voted in as single-largest party, though short of simple majority. Forms government that fell in 2.5 days; JD(S)-Congress post-poll alliance takes power, but falls in 2019 after sixteen MLAs resign. Yediyurappa-led BJP formed government again in 2019. BJP appoints new CM, Basavaraj Bommai in July 2021. Seats tally- BJP: 104; Congress: 80; JD(S): 38; KPJP: 1; BSP: 1; Independent: 1
(Source: Election Commission, research and analysis by Nalin Mehta)
Table 2: The BJP in Karnataka: Lok Sabha Elections (1980-2019), Total seats 28
- 1980: No BJP wins, Congress dominant. Congress: 27; Janata Party: 1
- 1984: No BJP wins, Congress dominant. Congress: 24; Janata Party: 4
- 1989: No BJP wins, Congress dominant. Congress: 26; Janata Dal: 2
- 1991: First BJP breakthrough, a year after the Veerendra Patil sacking. Congress: 23, BJP: 4, Janata: 1
- 1996: Slight expansion by BJP, Janata replaces Congress as the leading party. Janata Dal: 16; BJP: 6; Congress: 5; KCP: 1
- 1998: The first time that the BJP wins a majority of Karnataka parliamentary seats, as part of the NDA alliance with Ramakrishna Hegde’s Lok Shakti formed in 1997 [after Hegde, a former Janata chief minister, is expelled from JD(S)]. NDA: 16 (BJP: 13 and Lok Shakti: 3); Congress: 9; Janata Dal: 3
- 1999: BJP declines. Congress: 18; BJP: 7; JD(S): 3
- 2004: BJP resurgence. BJP: 18; Congress: 8; JD(S): 2
- 2009: BJP dominance consolidated. BJP: 19; Congress: 6; JD(S): 3
- 2014: BJP dominance continues. BJP: 17; Congress: 9; JD(S): 2.
- 2019: BJP sweeps state. BJP: 26 (25 + support for 1 independent); Congress: 1; JD(S): 1
(Source: Election Commission, research and analysis by Nalin Mehta)
This is the first of a 3-part series by Nalin Mehta on the Karnataka elections.
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This article was first published on news18.com | APRIL 20, 2023
